Predicting the price of bitcoin (BTC) has historically been as accurate as looking into a crystal ball, with all sorts of past price predictions that have been way off the mark – some hilariously so.

But Matrixport seems to have nailed it this year – or at least gets points for being the closest contender – as the $45,000 end-of-year price prediction it made on February 1 will very likely come true.

Bitcoin spent the early hours of Asia’s Friday business day teasing $44000, and if current trends hold, it will breach $45,000 by the end of the month.

“The 2023 bitcoin rally unfolded in five phases: starting with a reaction to inflation trends, followed by a banking crisis response, a surge due to BlackRock’s ETF filing, a boost from Federal Reserve policy shifts, and finally, developments in SEC regulations regarding bitcoin ETFs, “Markus Thielen, Matrixport’s head of research, wrote in a new report.

• BlackRock, Bitwise file updated spot bitcoin ETF applications with the SEC

Asset management giant BlackRock filed an amended S-1 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission for its proposed spot bitcoin ETF on Monday, with a similar move also taken by Bitwise. 

While the regulator has yet to approve a spot bitcoin fund and has so far delayed all the applications it’s received, analysts said the movements could signal that discussions are ongoing. 

“They’re just pouring in,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart wrote on X. “We have another spot ETF S-1 (prospectus) amendment tonight. This one is from @BlackRock. SEC is obviously giving multiple issuers the same or very similar instructions.”

“The wheel is still turning,” Seyffart continued. “Both the SEC and these issuers are working hard to iron things out. These filings are likely the result of many conversations and a lot of man hours on/between both sides.”

• Swiss city Lugano accepts Bitcoin and Tether for municipal taxes

The Swiss city of Lugano is enhancing the local adoption of Bitcoin by enabling citizens and companies to pay for municipal services and taxes with cryptocurrency.

The city of Lugano officially announced on Dec. 5 that the local administration now accepts cryptocurrency payments for taxes and all other community fees.

Starting immediately, Lugano will accept Bitcoin and major stablecoin Tether as a means of payment in an automated process through the Swiss institutional-grade cryptocurrency platform Bitcoin Suisse.

According to the announcement, Lugano citizens and companies will be able to pay all local invoices — regardless of the nature of the service or the amount invoiced — with Bitcoin.

• Crypto is for criminals? JPMorgan has been fined $39B and has its own token

PMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon is being hauled over the hot coals by the crypto community on X (formerly Twitter) after claiming Bitcoin and cryptocurrency’s “only true use case” is to facilitate crime.

“The only true use case for it is criminals, drug traffickers, money laundering, tax avoidance,” Dimon said in a hearing before the United States Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs on Dec. 5. “If I were the government, I’d close it down.”

But crypto pundits quickly pointed out the hypocrisy in Dimon’s statements, highlighting that JPMorgan is the second-largest penalized bank, having paid $39.3 billion in fines across 272 violations since 2000, according to Good Jobs First’s violation tracker.

About $38 billion of these fines came under Dimon’s watch, who has been CEO since 2005.

• Global policymakers are still pushing CBDCs despite their failures

Despite the risks and the failures associated with central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), global policymakers are pushing forward to make them a reality. 

In November alone, officials from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Bretton Woods Committee, and Bank for International Settlements (BIS) issued rallying calls for governments to push forward on CBDCs with courage and determination. But rather than double down on a bad idea and waste further resources in this pursuit, policymakers should let this idea go and focus on more fundamental reforms that would create a freer financial system.

The November CBDC campaign began when IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva told policymakers, “If anything… we need to pick up speed [with CBDC development].” Bretton Woods Committee chair Bill Dudley likewise called not only for the United States to develop a CBDC, but for the BIS to establish an international standard for CBDCs. And BIS Innovation Hub head Cecilia Skingsley told an audience that CBDCs should not be dismissed as a “solution in search of a problem” because they might be useful one day.

• Polygon CDK to power Web3 loyalty program for Indian e-commerce Flipkart

India’s homegrown e-commerce giant Flipkart will use Polygon’s chain development kit (CDK) to launch a Web3 loyalty program. 

On Dec. 2, Polygon and Flipkart announced a strategic partnership to effectively position the e-commerce platform into Web3 and the metaverse. This included initiatives such as Flipverse for nonfungible tokens (NFTs), eDAO for metaverse and the FireDrops NFT marketplace.

Building on this partnership, Polygon co-founder Sandeep Nailwal announced on Dec. 7 that Flipkart will use Polygon CDK to scale its FireDrops Web3 loyalty program.

Concluding Notes:

• Matrixport’s $45K End of Year Target for Bitcoin Looks to Be Accurate
• BlackRock, Bitwise file updated spot bitcoin ETF applications
• Swiss city Lugano accepts Bitcoin and Tether for municipal taxes
• JPMorgan has been fined $39B
• Global policymakers are still pushing CBDCs
• Polygon CDK to power Web3 loyalty program

Artykuł News Recap 2023 #Week50 pochodzi z serwisu BloodGoodBTC.

Bloodgang,

Welcome to this week’s issue of Bloodgood’s notes. The idea of this newsletter is to give you an overview of the previous week’s fundamentals and what happened on charts as well as to remind you of this week’s articles, secret TA tips, and trading calls. Basically, it’s about giving you all the key info in one place.

Table of contents 

1. Fundamental overview
2. Bitcoin and Ethereum chart
3. Blood’s content recap
4. Concluding notes

As this community grows, I have a duty to give back to all of you that helped me and supported me to become what I am. This free newsletter is just another way to share my experiences and prepare you for the journey that’s ahead of you.

Love,

Blood

---

Great week for risk-on assets, Bitcoin breaks major resistance, Ether follows, possible soft landing for U.S. economy and more

Fundamental overview

It’s been a great week for risk-on assets, with strong seasonality, bond yields plummeting, and the growing likelihood of a soft landing in the U.S. While December is a good month for stocks in general—largely because fund managers will want to make sure they own the hottest names in AI and big tech, even if their entries are often ridiculously high—it’s the possibility of a soft landing for the U.S. economy that’s getting people excited for more than just a Santa rally.

Simply put, a soft landing means that inflation would come down without any major crisis or recession. That way, the Fed would be free to slowly start cutting rates simply because the war on inflation would have been won, rather than having to cut in order to prop up a dumpster fire of an economy. The equation in this soft landing scenario is simple: lower rates, more capital sloshing around in the system and risk-on assets offering some juicy returns. A lot can still go wrong here, from geopolitical risk to another structural problem in the banking sector popping up, but if things stay more or less on course, 2024 could be a great year.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Monthly

Bitcoin Weekly

A bullish monthly close leads to a breakout!

Many eyes were glued to the monthly resistance waiting to see the reaction after the monthly close. Bitcoin bulls managed to get a close above the major level which triggered a run above $40k, as predicted a few letters ago. The next monthly resistance level lies slightly above $47k and that’s where we’ll look towards now.

December’s candle close will be as important as was November’s. Closing above the $38k level is important for continuation as since a close below would make this look like a major bull trap (not that I consider that particularly likely).

The weekly timeframe is hitting resistance, hence the move upwards is slowing down. Lately we’ve had a few situations where one timeframe was hitting resistance right as another was in the middle of an impulse move, which can be confusing for traders. In any case, if BTC retraces here, we will want the monthly (38k) or at least weekly (36k) level to hold. Losing both levels will lead Bitcoin back to the 30k region.

SPX, Gold and DXY

S&P 500

Gold

U.S. Dollar Index

SPX prints its 5th consecutive green weekly candle.

Bulls are euphoric, but now the real test is here as SPX is trading under the local high. Breaking the local high and the lower high from March 2022 will lead straight to all-time highs. While a retrace would be healthy here, the uptrend line must be defended if we want to see continuation into 2024.

Gold makes a new All-Time High!

Even if just briefly, gold managed to create a new high, but it was quickly rejected, currently trading right below the previous highs. I’m waiting to see how this week develops, but gold, similarly to Bitcoin, has been on a roll lately, and I would pay attention to breakouts as you don’t want to miss it.

Dollar Index downtrend is slowing down.

After the 103.66 level was broken, the DXY has started slowly ranging below the level. In spite of that, risk-on assets seem to be moving higher without any problem. Next week we have CPI and FOMC events in the U.S., so we could see some strength in DXY depending on the outcome, but it should be smooth sailing until then.

Ethereum

Ethereum Weekly

ETH/BTC Weekly

Ethereum finally breaks the April highs.

After three weekly candles got rejected at the $2100 level, ETH bulls finally managed to break higher and push Ethereum toward $2500. There should be no problem for Ether to reach this level as there is a big gap and many sidelined traders that were waiting for this to happen.

In case of a retrace, the $2100 or $2000 levels have to be defended or this will be considered a fakeout and the bullish setup would be invalidated.

Ethereum/BTC is still struggling.

Even though the USD pair is breaking levels, the BTC pair is having a hard time staying above the 0.055 BTC level. Some downward wicks were printed, which isn’t too surprising given that Bitcoin is grabbing all the attention right now.

Blood’s content recap

Bitcoin bull signals all over the place

“#Bitcoin bullish monthly close.

Price Action in December will play a key role for 2024 Bull run.

Get a yearly close above $38000 and then the real party starts.”

My Crypto Trading Guide Book is finally available

“Crypto Trading Guide books are now available on my Website.

I will personally sign every copy of the book.

Study it in detail, just in time for Bull Run.”

Order your Book here.

Concluding notes

It’s hard to imagine a week going by without ETF speculation, and this time it’s no different. If you remember the November 9 to 17 window that I mentioned three weeks ago, in which it was possible for the SEC to approve all the applications—well, that one clearly didn’t work out, but now we have a new window to mark on our calendars: January 5 to 10 (or, since the fifth will be a Friday, essentially January 8 to 10). If we finally get the approvals, be prepared for a lot of volatility on BTC and consequently everything else in crypto. While I still don’t think the ETF is priced in (let alone its longer-term impact in terms of capital flows), it shouldn’t be surprising to see a sell-the-news dump, even if it’s just a brief one. But then again, since the news would be so unprecedented, maybe those expecting a dump would be caught offside, leading to an even more violent squeeze upwards—long story short, keep your risk tight and your mind sharp during the approval window.

Artykuł Beginning of Freedom – Issue #108 pochodzi z serwisu BloodGoodBTC.

More than three-quarters of all blockchain games launched in the last five years are dead in the water, according to a recent study from CoinGecko.

Out of 2,817 games launched between 2018 and 2023, which were included in the study, only 690 of them still have a somewhat active player base.

CoinGecko defines a “failed” Web3 game as one where the 14-day moving average number of active users drops 99% or more from its peak.

While 2021 saw the highest number of blockchain games launched in a single year with 738 games, the following year — marred by major crypto collapses, saw the highest number of games to fizzle out, with 742 failing in a single year.

This puts the average failure rate of Web3 games at around 80% for any given year since 2018, according to CoinGecko.

• ‘Clear runway’ opens for all Bitcoin ETF approvals in Jan — Analysts

Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States now have a “clear runway” to potential simultaneous approvals after an advanced decision to delay the bids of Franklin Templeton and Hashdex ETFs, according to analysts.

In a Nov. 28 X (formerly Twitter) post, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed its decision on the applications 34 days earlier than the Jan. 1, 2024, decision deadline.

The SEC requested comments on forms by Franklin Templeton and Hashdex that are necessary for the ETFs to eventually be listed and start trading. The comment and rebuttal period will last 35 days.

Seyffart and his colleague Eric Balchunas had placed 90% odds on sport Bitcoin ETF approvals by Jan. 10, 2024, and the twin delays “all but confirms for me that this was likely a move to line every applicant up for potential approval by the Jan 10, 2024 deadline,” Seyffart said.

• Coinbase Stock Is Soaring—What Does That Mean for Crypto?

As of this writing, COIN shares—which trade on the Nasdaq—are sitting at $128.46. That’s the highest Coinbase has seen its shares trading all year, beating the previous high of $110.15 the company set in July after a ruling in favor of Ripple spurred optimism that Coinbase would be successful in its own SEC lawsuit.

The current highs also bring the San Francisco-based crypto exchange’s shares level with prices it last saw in May 2022. But the stock is still far short of its all-time high of $342.98. Unsurprisingly, that peak was seen during the November 2021 bull run when the global crypto market cap reached $3 trillion.

• Binance CEO outlines plan for crypto exchange after CZ steps down

Richard Teng, Binance’s former global head of regional markets and now CEO, announced his intention to drive growth at the crypto exchange following Changpeng “CZ” Zhao stepping down.

In a Nov. 27 blog post, Teng said he had the support of CZ and Binance’s leadership following the former CEO’s departure as part of an agreement with United States officials. According to Teng, Binance plans to continue a user-focused approach to its business and “drive growth and the adoption of Web3,” assuring customers they will hear more from him soon.

“I am eager to jump headfirst into my new role and know there will be many more opportunities for me to share my thoughts with the community through blogs like this one, through my social media accounts — Twitter, LinkedIn — and through the many industry conferences and events around the world,” said Teng.

• FTX and Alameda Research cash out $10.8M to Binance, Coinbase, Wintermute

Wallets linked to defunct crypto trading firms FTX and Alameda Research moved $10.8 million to accounts in Binance, Coinbase and Wintermute using eight cryptocurrencies.

Blockchain analysis firm Spot On Chain spotted the movement, estimating that the defunct entities have transferred $551 million since Oct. 24 using 59 different cryptocurrency tokens.

The latest transfer of $10.8 million was spread across eight tokens: $2.58 million in StepN’s GMT, $2.41 million in Uniswap’s UNI $2.25 million in Synapse’s SYN, $1.64 million in Klaytn’s KLAY, $1.18 million in Fantom’s FTM $644,000 in Shiba Inu and small amounts of Arbitrum’s ARB and Optimism’s OP.

• Crypto thieves steal $363M in Nov, the most ‘damaging’ month this year

The cryptocurrency industry has now seen its most “damaging” month for crypto thievery, scams and exploits in 2023, with crypto criminals walking away with $363 million in November, according to a blockchain security firm.

Around $316.4 million came from exploits alone, flash loans inflicted $45.5 million in damage, and $1.1 million was lost to various exit scams, CertiK stated in a Nov. 30 X (formerly Twitter) post.

The largest exploits in November occurred on Poloniex and HTX/Heco Bridge, with losses of $131.4 million and $113.3 million, respectively.

The third largest exploit was inflicted on a single victim who lost $27 million from a phishing attack.

Meanwhile, the 45 million KyberSwap attack accounted for nearly all damage done for flash loan attacks in the month.

The latest monthly figure has surpassed an earlier record of $329 million, set in September, caused mainly by the $200 million Mixin Network attack.

Concluding Notes:

• Over 75% of Web3 games ‘failed’ in last five years
• ‘Clear runway’ opens for all Bitcoin ETF approvals in Jan
• Coinbase Stock Is Soaring
• Binance CEO outlines plan for crypto exchange
• FTX and Alameda Research cash out $10.8M
• Crypto thieves steal $363M in November

Artykuł News Recap 2023 #Week49 pochodzi z serwisu BloodGoodBTC.

Bloodgang,

Welcome to this week’s issue of Bloodgood’s notes. The idea of this newsletter is to give you an overview of the previous week’s fundamentals and what happened on charts as well as to remind you of this week’s articles, secret TA tips, and trading calls. Basically, it’s about giving you all the key info in one place.

Table of contents 

1. Fundamental overview
2. Bitcoin and Ethereum chart
3. Blood’s content recap
4. Concluding notes

As this community grows, I have a duty to give back to all of you that helped me and supported me to become what I am. This free newsletter is just another way to share my experiences and prepare you for the journey that’s ahead of you.

Love,

Blood

---

Bitcoin and Ethereum tease breakout, DXY in freefall, CZ steps down, Altman returns to OpenAI and more

Fundamental overview

Those that were hoping for a break from the almost endless stream of ETF-related news finally got what they wanted. Instead of the bureaucratic intricacies of how the SEC handles ETF requests and what that could mean for Bitcoin, last week all the attention was elsewhere: on Tuesday, the headlines on the Binance and CZ plea agreement dropped, sending shockwaves throughout crypto and beyond.

The gist of the deal is simple: Binance will pay a total of $4.3 billion for violating U.S. anti-money laundering and sanctions laws, while CZ himself stepped down as CEO along with having to pay $50 million himself. This might sound like a devastating outcome—4 billion isn’t exactly pocket change, and there’s still the possibility that CZ might go to prison—but in reality, it’s extremely good for the whole industry, mainly for two reasons. First, the fine is something that Binance can very easily survive, and even if CZ goes to prison, the maximum sentence would be 18 months, while he can still keep his shares in the exchange. CZ is a huge public figure, of course, but it’s hardly impossible for Binance to thrive with someone else as CEO.

Second, and most important, is the matter of what exactly Binance pleaded guilty to. The exchange essentially admitted that it failed to implement anti-money laundering and sanctioned entities controls—not that it misused customer assets or was insolvent. In other words: the problem is that CZ failed to prevent people from sending payments to illegal organizations, not that he ‘misplaced’ billions and billions of user funds like SBF did. The possibility of Binance being insolvent was always the biggest systemic risk in all of this, so the fact that they don’t seem to have any holes on their balance sheet is a huge relief for the industry.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Weekly

Bitcoin Daily

Bitcoin teases the resistance days before the monthly close.

While indicators showed that the Bitcoin local top is in, the chart tells a different story. At the time of writing Bitcoin is trading right below the local high and teasing a potential breakout. $38,500 is the level to break if we want to see full send into mid-40’s territory. On the other hand, I will accept this as a local high if it loses $35k, which will lead to a retrace towards $30k region.

Looking at the bigger picture, things look pretty good: FTX is down, Binance is solvent, CZ has left and with a spot ETF close to being approved, the biggest TradFi giants will soon have a lot to gain from Bitcoin mooning, hence they will probably do something to nudge things in that direction.

The weekly remains the same as last week, above and ready for a leg higher, but since the monthly is at resistance we cannot trade purely on the weekly timeframe being bullish.

Looking deeper into the daily timeframe we can see that the mini-range which we drew a few weeks ago still hasn’t been broken. Although there was a moment when BTC was above the range high, it was quickly rejected. As long as it’s trading in the upper part of the range I am comfy.

SPX, Gold and DXY

S&P 500

Gold

U.S. Dollar Index

S&P 500 prints another green weekly candle.

Stocks are having a blast lately, breaking levels like a hot knife through butter. However, the real test will come at the local highs, as the reaction there or at the historical 4638 level will give us a clear direction of where SPX will go by the end of year. A rejection means it will be a tough start of the year, whereas a breakout could mean that the bullish momentum could accelerate in 2024. 

Gold showing signs of strength.

It closed above the $2000 level as well as breaking above the trendline, which gives quite a bit of hope to bulls. The stage is now set for all-time highs to be reached in December and that wouldn’t surprise me. If it’s rejected here and the weekly candle closes below $1981, this whole idea is invalidated and there will be no hope for ATHs in 2023 (unless we see some major geopolitical catalysts, that is).

The U.S. Dollar Index is breaking down

The daily level at 103.66 has been broken without any struggle and the reaction can be seen on risk-on assets as SPX, crypto and others fly higher. There is a big gap from 103 to 101 which, if this isn’t a fake breakdown, will be filled. We have CPI and FOMC events coming up on Dec 12th and 13th, so keep that in mind.

Ethereum

Ethereum/USDT

Ethereum is stuck!

It has been slowly pushing up with weekly candles printing higher lows, but still unable to break the $2144 April high. This is the last level that is keeping ETH from teleporting to $2500 and it has done a good job so far. 

While accumulation under resistance is usually bullish, I am worried about the decreasing volume which indicates that bulls are getting exhausted. Both Bitcoin and Ether are under important resistances and Bitcoin, as always, will lead the way. 

Ether/BTC is still fighting to stay above the 0.055 BTC level with the USD pair under resistance. I will update the chart when anything changes.

Blood’s content recap

Black Swan avoided?

“Biggest Crypto Fear was Binance collapsing.

DOJ will allow Binance to flow operations under its supervision to stay compliant

Attacks are obvious, Blackrock doesn’t want Binance to be #1 when ETF is accepted.

Binance doesn’t collapse, Blacrock is happy and we avoid Black Swan”

My Crypto Trading Guide Book is finally available

“Crypto Trading Guide books are now available on my Website.

I will personally sign every copy of the book.

Study it in detail, just in time for Bull Run.”

Order your Book here.

Concluding notes

The more the market becomes exciting again, the more important it will be to keep track of everything, but there are only so many hours in a day. This is why I’ve always believed that allocating your time properly is key to thriving as a trader, and the mistake I see people making the most is spending way too much time worrying about the latest breaking news, even if it’s irrelevant to their trading decisions.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s important to stay on top of the latest developments, but not to spend too much time analyzing every possible detail of a developing story. A good example can be found in the recent events with Sam Altman: he was fired as OpenAI’s CEO before last week’s newsletter, but I decided to only briefly mention that story towards the end, instead of speculating on the details of why and what might happen. Now, it’s easy to see why that was a good idea: Altman returned to OpenAI just four days later, after more than 700 employees threatened to quit. 

There are still a lot of interesting stories about what might have been behind it all, so if you’re interested in that, it’s worth researching. But if not—if you’re just trying to stay on top of the news as a trader—then your time is better spent elsewhere. This, after all, has always been part of the motivation behind this newsletter: to give you the best overview of TA and the biggest market-moving stories in the quickest format possible, so that you have more time to implement and practice what you learn on the charts.

Artykuł Beginning of Freedom – Issue #107 pochodzi z serwisu BloodGoodBTC.

Executives from crypto asset manager Grayscale have met with the Securities and Exchange Commission to discuss details of its flagship Bitcoin trust, which the firm wants to convert to a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).

Grayscale detailed that it had entered a transfer agency and service agreement with BNY Mellon, according to a filing shared by Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart.

The bank will act as the agent for its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), facilitating the issuance and redemption of shares and maintaining shareholder accounts.

In a Nov. 21 X (formerly Twitter) post, Seyffart observed that the trading and markets division is in charge of approving or denying Form 19b-4s — used to inform the SEC of a proposed rule change by a self-regulatory organization.

• Bitcoin Halving Is 5 Months Away and Hash Rate Just Hit an All-Time High

Bitcoin’s hash rate has hit a new all-time high—indicating that the network is stronger than ever. Just in time for next year’s highly anticipated halving.

The total Bitcoin hash rate hit 491 exahashes per second (TH/s) Wednesday, according to data from Blockchain.com. This means that every second, mining machines around the world securing the Bitcoin network are making 491 quintillion hash computations.

• KyberSwap DEX exploited for $46 million, TVL tanks 68%

Around $46 million in various crypto assets has seemingly been drained from the decentralized KyberSwap exchange in the latest decentralized finance exploit.

On Nov. 23, the Kyber Network team alerted its users, stating in an X (Twitter) post that KyberSwap Elastic “has experienced a security incident.”

It advised users to withdraw their funds as a precaution and added that it was investigating the situation.

According to Debank data, around $46 million has been pilfered in the attack, including roughly $20 million in Wrapped Ether (wETH), $7 million in wrapped Lido-staked Ether (wstETH) and $4 million in Arbitrum (ARB).

The funds were split across multiple chains, including Arbitrum, Optimism, Ethereum, Polygon and Base.

• Alchemy Pay bags money services license in Iowa, expands US services

The Singaporean crypto-fiat payment gateway, Alchemy Pay, announced a further expansion into the United States market on Nov. 23 with the acquisition of its money services license in the state of Iowa. 

According to local state regulations, any entity or individual engaged in currency exchange or money transmission business in Iowa must hold the license.

In September, the company received its money transmitter license (MTL) in Arkansas. The company says it has already completed the application for MTL licenses in additional U.S. states and anticipates answers in the coming months.

• Australia’s tax agency won’t clarify its confusing, ‘aggressive’ crypto rules

Australia’s tax regulator has been unable to clarify confusing aspects of its new guidance that suggests capital gains tax (CGT) is payable on a slate of everyday decentralized finance (DeFi) transactions.

The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) failed to answer direct questions from Cointelegraph on whether staking Ether on Lido or transferring funds via bridges to layer-2 networks are CGT events, leaving DeFi users in the dark about how to comply.

The Nov. 9 guidance from the ATO said CGT is payable when transferring tokens to another address or smart contract that a person doesn’t have “beneficial ownership” over or if the address has a non-zero balance of the tokens.

Exchanging “one crypto asset for a right to receive an equivalent number of the same crypto asset in the future,” providing liquidity to a protocol, wrapping tokens and loaning assets are ATO examples of DeFi uses incurring a CGT event.

• Is Binance’s $4B settlement the green light for spot Bitcoin ETFs?

Binance’s $4.3-billion settlement with the United States was the final hurdle before the country’s securities regulator approves spot Bitcoin  exchange-traded funds (ETFs), many industry watchers claim.

The settlement involved Binance agreeing to Justice Department and Treasury compliance monitors for up to five years, allowing the agencies sweeping powers to keep the exchange in line with Anti-Money Laundering and sanctions rules, among other things.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has cited market manipulation when denying spot Bitcoin ETFs, and Binance’s market dominance had to take a hit before BlackRock’s spot BTC ETF application would be approved, according to a June X (Twitter) post by Travis Kling, chief investment officer of Ikigai Asset Management.

Concluding Notes:

• Grayscale met with SEC to discuss spot Bitcoin ETF details
• Bitcoin Halving Is 5 Months Away and Hash Rate Just Hit an All-Time High
• KyberSwap DEX exploited for $46 million
• Alchemy Pay bags money services license in Iowa
• Australia’s tax agency won’t clarify its confusing, ‘aggressive’ crypto rules
• Is Binance’s $4B settlement the green light for spot Bitcoin ETFs

Artykuł News Recap 2023 #Week48 pochodzi z serwisu BloodGoodBTC.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, officially filed for a spot Ether exchange-traded fund (ETF) with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Nov. 15.

The Ether ETF, dubbed the iShares Ethereum Trust, aims to “reflect generally the performance of the price of Ether,” read the S-1 filed with the SEC. The iShares brand is associated with BlackRock’s ETF products, with its Bitcoin ETF called the iShares Bitcoin Trust. The trust appoints Coinbase as the custodian for the underlying ETH.

The move by BlackRock comes nearly a week after it registered the iShares Ethereum Trust with Delaware’s Division of Corporations and almost six months after it filed its spot Bitcoin ETF application.

• SEC Needs More Time on Grayscale Ethereum Futures ETF

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has delayed a decision on the Grayscale Ethereum futures exchange-traded fund (ETF).

Grayscale Investments filed to the Wall Street regulator back in September. The fund would allow investors to buy shares that bet on the future price of Ethereum (ETH), the second-biggest digital asset by market cap.

But the SEC said on the 15th that it would delay the decision. The SEC regularly extends the period it has to give decisions on crypto products.

“The Commission finds it appropriate to designate a longer period within which to take action on the proposed rule change so that it has sufficient time to consider the proposed rule change and the issues raised therein,” the SEC wrote in its filing.

• Turkey mulls addressing licensing and taxation in new crypto rule

Turkey is reportedly considering regulations for its crypto market, focusing on licensing and taxation. The aim is to remove the country from the “grey list” of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), as Turkey ranks fourth globally in crypto trading.

According to a Reuters report, Bora Erdamar, a director at the BlockchainIST Center — a blockchain technology research and development center — said the upcoming crypto regulations will prioritize implementing specific licensing standards to prevent system abuse. Erdamar added that the regulations may encompass factors such as capital adequacy standards, enhancements in digital security, custody services and verification of reserves.

Turkey also aims to respond to issues highlighted by the Paris-based FATF, which, in 2021, included the country in its “gry list” of nations susceptible to money laundering and other financial crimes.

• Crypto Is Second Most Popular Investment Asset In France

According to a poll conducted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and published on November 13 by France’s main financial regulator, the Autorité des Marchés Financiers, cryptocurrencies are the second most popular type of investment asset among the adult French population. 

According to the survey, 9.4% of the French population owns crypto assets, which is only slightly lower than the 10.7% who own the most popular type of investment asset, real estate funds. A further 2.8% of respondents possess nonfungible tokens.

The poll also tracked the number of “new investors” who made their first investment since the COVID-19 outbreak began in March 2020. The majority of new investors (64%) are men, and they are substantially younger than traditional investors, with an average age of 36 versus 51 for the latter. 54% of those in this category own crypto assets.

• No civil protection for crypto in China, $300K to list coins in Hong Kong? Asia Express

Hashkey Exchange, one of the first regulated crypto exchanges in Hong Kong has announced insurance coverage for clients assets stored in its hot and cold wallets. accounts. The policy will cover 50% of Hashkey’s digital assets in cold wallets and 100% of digital assets in hot wallets, paying out from $50 million to $400 million in the event of a claim.

Hashkey’s partnership with fintech OneDegree will also see the pair co-develop novel crypto security solutions for the exchange to manage server downtime, data back-up, and load control. “Getting insurance cover from OneInfinity by OneDegree not only fulfills the Securities and Futures Commission requirements, we believe the collaboration can also enhance our financial, technical, and service infrastructure to provide our customers with comprehensive protection,” said Livio Wang, chief operating officer of Hashkey Group.

• FTX Foundation staffer fights for $275K bonus promised by SBF

An employee of FTX’s charity wing recruited by FTX co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried is trying to get paid $275,000, the remainder of his claimed 2022 salary bonus.

Ross Rheingans-Yoo’s lawyers argued in a Nov. 13 court filing that only $375,000 of his $650,000 bonus was paid by FTX. They claim the remaining funds were owed when the crypto exchange filed for bankruptcy in November 2022.

Rheingans-Yoo’s latest filing comes in response to FTX’s objection filed on Oct. 30.

Concluding Notes:

• BlackRock files S-1 form for spot Ether ETF
• SEC Needs More Time on Grayscale Ethereum Futures ETF
• Turkey mulls addressing licensing and taxation in new crypto rule
• Crypto Is Second Most Popular Investment Asset In France
• No civil protection for crypto in China
• FTX Foundation staffer fights for $275K bonus promised by SBF

Artykuł News Recap 2023 #Week47 pochodzi z serwisu BloodGoodBTC.

Bloodgang,

Welcome to this week’s issue of Bloodgood’s notes. The idea of this newsletter is to give you an overview of the previous week’s fundamentals and what happened on charts as well as to remind you of this week’s articles, secret TA tips, and trading calls. Basically, it’s about giving you all the key info in one place.

Table of contents 

1. Fundamental overview
2. Bitcoin and Ethereum chart
3. Blood’s content recap
4. Concluding notes

As this community grows, I have a duty to give back to all of you that helped me and supported me to become what I am. This free newsletter is just another way to share my experiences and prepare you for the journey that’s ahead of you.

Love,

Blood

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Bitcoin faces monthly resistance, Ethereum breaks the magic line, CPI and everything quiet on the ETF front

Fundamental overview

Lately it can feel like no one is talking about anything other than ETF news, but that still remains the main driving force in the market as BlackRock filed for a spot Ethereum ETF on Friday. When it comes to the spot Bitcoin ETF, all eyes are on the SEC this week: while there’s no telling exactly when they’ll make their decision, the period from last Friday until the end of this week is especially important. This is because an ETF can’t be approved while it’s in a comment period, and those periods for current applications ended on November 9, while new ones haven’t started yet. If the SEC wants to approve all applications at the same time, which is what most are expecting because there aren’t any substantial differences between them, it can do so in the time window from November 9 to 17. Again, that’s mostly just speculation at this point, but even if the process gets dragged out into Q1 2024, that’s just a couple of months away now.

In any case, don’t get too caught up in the ETF hype and forget about all the other things that can move the market this week, especially the CPI for October that will be released after this newsletter hits your inbox. Expectations for headline inflation are at 3.3%, down from September’s 3.7%, largely due to the drop in average gas prices in the US. As always, hotter inflation is bearish and vice versa.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Monthly

Bitcoin Weekly

Bitcoin is facing an important resistance on the monthly time frame.

The monthly has been in up-only mode since September as it’s up over 40% but, not to be on Capo’s side, it wouldn’t be impossible to get a red monthly candle. November’s monthly returns for BTC since 2018 were all in red numbers except for just one year, so I’m staying cautious here as we trade under resistance.

On the other hand, the weekly paints a completely different picture. Bitcoin has reclaimed the weekly resistance level which was also the CME gap. A weekly close above the level was of key importance, the next task for bulls now is to defend it.

A weekly close below would indicate a fake breakout and a possibility of going back to the $31-$32k zone. Another weekly close above the CME gap would indicate that we are reaching $40k before $31k.

SPX, Gold and DXY

S&P 500

Gold

U.S. Dollar Index

Stocks are on a roll.

A bullish start of the month has led SPX up 7% since forming the local bottom, breaking through levels without a problem. The weekly candle has closed above the downtrend line which is the first sign of a bullish structure. The series of lower highs is over, so now we need to see if it will follow through with some momentum.

Keep an eye on this week’s price action, as it’s of key importance for both stocks and crypto.

Gold prints a fake breakout.

After weeks of huge weekly green candles, which were largely a result of geopolitical instability in the Middle East, gold falls back towards the infamous 1916 level. A fake breakout is bearish, but it has already played out. The key levels that must hold right now are the downtrend line as well as the 1916 level. Breaking below those levels would be extremely bearish and I am confident we would retrace the whole pump and drop back to 1810.

The Dollar Index fights back

After a 2% red weekly candle was printed, bulls stepped in to defend the 105 level, although the structure remains bearish as long as DXY is trading below the March high which is still too strong to break. Bearish DXY means bullish risk-on assets, so as long as it doesnt smash through the March highs we should be fine.

Ethereum

Ethereum/USDT

Ethereum/BTC

Ethereum woke up as the pump is confirmed with volume.

ETH bulls are euphoric as it finally broke the magic $2000 line after 7 months. The last time ETH broke above this level, it printed a fakeout which resulted in months of pain for ETH fanatics. At the time the volume was slowly decreasing, meaning the pump didn’t have that much momentum behind it, but this time the volume seems to be on the bulls’ side. 

Closing above the $2k level was the first task for bulls, next on the to-do list is keeping this weekly candle above that level and going for the April highs. Breaking the highs would lead ETH towards $2500. In case we print another fakeout here, we could be in for another couple of months of pain.

ETH/BTC is also showing signs of strength.

Ether finally woke up against the orange coin as well, breaking the 0.055 BTC level and printing a fake breakdown which, being the opposite of a fake breakout, is bullish. The macro low was defended for now so things are looking good for those who bought at the level.

I’ll keep updating this chart, for now we want to see ETH/BTC remain above 0.055.

Blood’s content recap

The stakes were never higher

“The importance of gettin rich with Crypto was never higher.

Blackrock, State street and Vanguard own everything and they are interested in going after family homes.

The “Great Reset” is in progress and the idea is: You will own nothing and be happy.

Study crypto, get rich and invest as much as possible in out of crypto businesses.”

Concluding notes

With all the ETF hype, it should come as no surprise that there’s a dark side to it as well: yesterday, fake news about BlackRock filing for a Ripple ETF sent XRP flying 15% in a matter of minutes. That might not sound like a lot, but XRP isn’t exactly a microcap coin, and the complete retrace when the rumor was revealed to be fake wiped out close to $100 million in open interest. The whole drama played out in just over half an hour; after it, the price was right back to where it was, leaving behind nothing but a wick and a whole lot of liquidation notices.

On that note, one point that we should keep in mind is that having an ETF for a ton of altcoins wouldn’t be as bullish as it sounds. At this point, as crypto is only just starting to regain the trust of people outside of the industry after a less-than-fortunate 2022, it’s probably a good thing that BTC and ETH are the only assets that will be available through spot ETFs anytime soon. Once having retirement savings in those two coins becomes mainstream, altcoins can start to gain broader adoption too, but for now, it’s good that the focus is only on the assets that most of us can unite around. 

Artykuł Beginning of Freedom – Issue #105 pochodzi z serwisu BloodGoodBTC.

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission could approve all 12 of the pending spot Bitcoin exchange traded fund (ETF) applications within the next eight days. 

Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas wrote that starting from Nov. 9  in the United States, the SEC has a “window” to approve all 12 spot Bitcoin ETF filings — including Grayscale’s conversion of its GBTC trust product — in the days leading up to Nov. 17, but stressed this was only a possibility.

• Bitcoin ETF launch could be delayed more than a month after SEC approval

With the United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s first window opening up for the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF, analysts have noted that even if the SEC approves a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), it will be a month before the actual launch.

The expected delay in launch following a potential SEC approval would be due to the two-step process of launching an ETF. For an issuer to start a Bitcoin ETF, it must get SEC approval from the Trading and Markets division on its 19b-4 filing and the Corporate Finance division on the S-1 filing or prospectus.

The main focus of the Corporate Finance division includes fund operations details and risk disclosures. To date, of the 12 Bitcoin ETF applications, nine issuers have submitted revised prospectuses showing they have communicated with Corporate Finance. Market analysts believe the Bitcoin ETF launch may get delayed if the SEC approves the 19b-4 approvals before prospectus documents are signed off.

• NFT sales volume jumps to $129M in November — Nansen data

Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) have seen a steady increase in terms of weekly Ether sales volume, according to the blockchain analytics platform Nansen. 

In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Nansen highlighted that on the week ending on Oct. 9, NFT sales were at 29,704 ETH, worth around $56 million at current ETH market prices. The sales volume increaseed weekly until it reached 68,342 ETH, worth over $129 million.

NFT marketplace Blur had the highest share of NFT trading volume in the last 30 days. According to data aggregator NFTGo, Blur had a trading volume of 161,433 ETH (roughly $305 million) in the previous 30 days. Meanwhile, the second spot went to its competitor, OpenSea, which had 52,307 ETH in trading volume, or around $100 million. 

• Binance Rolls Out Its First Ever Self-Custody Web3 Wallet

Cryptocurrency exchange Binance has released a Web3 wallet that can be used to interact with the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem.

The new product, which will work across 30 blockchain networks, was announced at the Binance Blockchain Week conference in Istanbul.

“Web3 wallets represent more than just storing digital assets; they are an integral part of the Web3 framework, empowering individuals with the ability for self-sovereign finance,” CEO Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao said.

Binance’s Web3 wallet will compete with the likes of MetaMask and Trust Wallet, the latter of which was acquired by Binance in 2018. Binance listed a futures market for TrustWallet’s native token (TWT) earlier this week. The TWT price slid after the announcement, taking the 24-hour change to a 7% drop.

• Ethereum, Bitcoin users reignite scalability debate as gas fees surge

A recent spike in transaction fees on Ethereum and Bitcoin appears to have reignited the debate around solutions for scalability and the role of layer 2s.

Over the last 24 hours, cryptocurrency users began sharing screenshots showing double, occasionally triple-digit transaction fees on Ethereum and Bitcoin.

One screenshot showed gas fees were as high as $220 for a high-priority transaction on Ethereum while other screenshots showed figures around the $100 mark.

Bitcoin users meanwhile, reported fees that were around $10 for high-priority transactions. While this is relatively low, the average Bitcoin (BTC) transaction cost has hovered around $1 over the last three months, according to BitInfoCharts. BTC fees haven’t been this high since May.

• Hong Kong ‘ready’ to capitalize on crypto’s next bull run: Hashkey Capital

ong Kong is “very ready” for the next wave of mass crypto adoption, with an influx of crypto talent that has been spilling into the aspiring digital asset hub, says Jupiter Zheng, a partner at Hashkey Capital.

Speaking to Cointelegraph, Zheng, partner of liquid funds and research at the investment arm of Hong Kong crypto firm HashKey Group — explained that the combination of new Web3 projects along with crypto-positive regulatory developments has primed Hong Kong for significant growth in the next four to five years.

“You’ve got all of these new, different projects, with their founders and teams here, which is all real GDP by the way. These teams are already boosting both banking and capital market activities.”

Concluding Notes:

• SEC’s first window to approve all 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs to begins November 9th
• Bitcoin ETF launch could be delayed more than a month after SEC approval
• NFT sales volume jumps to $129M in November — Nansen data
• Binance Rolls Out Its First Ever Self-Custody Web3 Wallet
• Ethereum, Bitcoin users reignite scalability debate as gas fees surge
• Hong Kong ‘ready’ to capitalize on crypto’s next bull run: Hashkey Capital

Artykuł News Recap 2023 #Week46 pochodzi z serwisu BloodGoodBTC.

Bloodgang,

Welcome to this week’s issue of Bloodgood’s notes. The idea of this newsletter is to give you an overview of the previous week’s fundamentals and what happened on charts as well as to remind you of this week’s articles, secret TA tips, and trading calls. Basically, it’s about giving you all the key info in one place.

Table of contents 

1. Fundamental overview
2. Bitcoin and Ethereum chart
3. Blood’s content recap
4. Concluding notes

As this community grows, I have a duty to give back to all of you that helped me and supported me to become what I am. This free newsletter is just another way to share my experiences and prepare you for the journey that’s ahead of you.

Love,

Blood

---

Fed helds rates, Stocks bounce, weak jobs data and alts push higher

Fundamental overview

The Fed held rates steady for the second consecutive time and stocks rallied, even though that decision wasn’t exactly unexpected. As for the next FOMC in December, Powell said that no decisions have been made yet, but for now it doesn’t look likely that we’ll see a final hike in 2023. Instead, the market seems to be leaning more towards holding rates for a while and then starting to cut in the first half of 2024. If something like that does play out and we get a Fed pivot, the BTC halving and spot ETFs all in the space of a few months, then it’s easy to see what that would mean for Bitcoin.

It’s always hard to predict anything that far into the future, but for now, things do seem to be heading in that general direction. Friday’s jobs data came in fairly weak, and the previous two months’ readings were also revised down by a lot, while bond yields are finally cooling off. Long story short, things aren’t looking too hawkish.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Weekly

Bitcoin Daily

Bitcoin remains stuck under the resistance.

Both the monthly and the weekly candles closed under a major level, which indicates that bulls were not strong enough for a breakout and there is a possibility to see some red numbers in November. The $35-$36k level remains the area that bulls must break if we want to see $40k reached in 2023.

In case of a bigger retrace, $30k-$31k must hold or else the bullish scenario is invalidated and this will be a fake breakout. 

The daily timeframe shows what happened in more detail. We are still trading inside a range after an unsuccessful breakout attempt. At the time of writing BTC is trading just below the range high.

Ever since the range low was printed here, Bitcoin kept on slowly grinding higher which was great for alts, however the volume is dropping and that’s not a good sign when you’re sitting right under resistance. Hence, caution is advised.

SPX, Gold and DXY

S&P 500

Gold

U.S. Dollar Index

Stocks defend the 4096 level and bounce higher

After two bloody weeks for SPX, we saw a bounce that retraced the whole dump and reclaimed the trendline. Moreover, it also reclaimed the key level at 4325. The 4096 level was a must-hold level for bulls which was defended, but a new lower low was still printed in the dump. Some would argue that this is a bullish structure, but for me, until the series of lower highs is broken, we’re not in the clear just yet.

Gold retraces back to its breakout level.

Gold bulls take a breather after three weeks of sheer domination. The importance of defending the 1981 level is clear; either it holds or it drops back to 1916. All-time highs are in sight if the level is defended.

U.S. Dollar Index prints a 2% red weekly candle

The weekly has broken and closed below the breakout area at 105 which is a strong bearish signal. If this doesn’t result in a fake breakdown, we might just see crypto and other risk-on assets go way higher.

Keep your eyes on the 105 level as this is do or die for DXY.

Ethereum

Ethereum/USDT

Ethereum/Bitcoin

Ethereum takes off and reaches $1900.

As soon as the downtrend line was broken, ETH pushed towards $2k. There is a resistance on the daily timeframe around $1900, but the target here is $2000. The weekly volume is increasing which is also a good sign.

In case of a retrace, the $1768 weekly level must hold or else this will look like a bull trap. If bulls manage to break the $2k level, there is a big gap with little or no resistance all the way to $2500.

ETH/BTC is back under the 0.05 BTC level.

As Bitcoin slowed down, alts had some room to grow and ETH/BTC managed to push back to the breakdown level.

The real pump starts when Ethereum breaks above this level, as alts will fly with it. Given that Bitcoin is sitting under resistance we could see that happening, but not while Bitcoin is still grabbing all the attention with ETF headlines.

Some of the most important deadlines for a spot ETF are in January 2024, so if nothing major happens before then, alts have plenty of time to make a move.

Blood’s content recap

The stakes were never higher

“The importance of gettin rich with Crypto was never higher.

Blackrock, State street and Vanguard own everything and they are interested in going after family homes.

The “Great Reset” is in progress and the idea is: You will own nothing and be happy.

Study crypto, get rich and invest as much as possible in out of crypto businesses.”

Concluding notes

Apart from the Fed looking less hawkish and a spot BTC ETF being essentially just a matter of time, the thing that a lot of people are celebrating is that Sam Bankman-Fried is going away for a long, long time. After a less-than-impressive defense, with the term “I don’t recall” popping up in almost every single response given by SBF when he took the stand, the jury found him guilty on all 7 counts. The maximum sentence based on the charges is 115 years, and we’ll find out exactly how many Sam will have to serve on March 28, 2024. Meanwhile, he’ll have another trial for 5 additional charges on March 11, and the sentencing for those charges might also be on March 28. What we do know is that the jury wasn’t buying the argument that it’s possible to misplace a few billion accidentally and in good faith. Overall, in spite of all his political connections and donations, SBF simply managed to screw up so bad that there’s no way out, and justice will be served.

Artykuł Beginning of Freedom – Issue #104 pochodzi z serwisu BloodGoodBTC.